Wednesday 12 August 2009

Highlights of 2009 Broker note. (millions)

Sales 2009a £35.64 2010e £28.45 2011e £36.30 2012e 41.50

PTP 09a 1.71 10e 0.01 11e 3.00 12e 5.22

eps pence 09a 2.27 10e 0.01 11e 3.50 12e 4.58

Div pence 09a 0.45p 10e 46p 11e 50p 12e 60p.

Margins 09a 34% 10e 38% 11e 40% 12e 42%

Cash on deposit. 09a £834,000 10e £347,000 11e £2,858,000 12e £5,903,000

Net (debt) cash 09a (3.263) 10e (4,250) 11e (1,739) 12e 1.306.

The company will be ungeared in 2012. The dividend cover will be over 7 times in 2012. I think the company could be paying a far higher dividend and will be pressing the company to do so nearer the time. Bear in mind the company will be ungeared in the same time scale if they meet brokers forecasts.

The brokers regard the strategy off offshoring and investment in IP offers significant returns in the long term. The brokers have forecast that the ECD division will be making pre tax profits of £1 million in fy10 and the other divisions a small loss. However the brokers have indicated that as a conseqence of most of the exceptionals already been taken to the profit and loss account any uplift in sales should enhance current year performance. Having said that the most profitable part of the group being ECD, and the economies starting now to see growth, the brokers forecasts could get beaten on a full years trading. Surprising news today both France and Germany seem to have come out of recession and resumed growth.

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